- A popup offer pays off in welcome email #1. Across 4 consumable brands, welcome email #1 earned about $4.50 per person, compared to about $0.10 each for emails #2 to #5.
- An email popup discount isn't the only option. Free shipping, a sample, a first-order gift, a quiz result or early access can all give people a reason to sign up.
- A strategist on Klaviyo's professional services team says to find the smallest offer that still converts, so you're not giving away margin you don't need to.
- Judge a popup test by first orders and revenue per signup, not by signups alone.
Why do most popups offer a discount?
Because it works on the person you're trying to reach. Someone who has never tried your product is taking a risk on a first order. A discount lowers that risk, and it gives them a reason to type in their email right now instead of "later."
It also hands your welcome flow a job. In the Flow System I install, the welcome series is 6 emails over 7 days. The offer goes out in email #1 on Day 0 and expires on Day 7, and the series stops as soon as someone buys. Email #1 carries most of the money: in my four-brand data, it earned about 30x what each of emails #2 to #5 earned. That's why the offer goes in it, and the rest of the week builds trust before it expires. A wellness brand I work with had a welcome email #1 that made $2,160 from 50 deliveries in one month, about $43 every time it was sent.
So the offer isn't really about the popup. It's about giving email #1 something worth opening and acting on. It's also the offer non-customers see in every flow I install, from browse abandonment to cart and checkout. It stays the same everywhere and never gets bigger, so nobody learns that abandoning a cart gets them a better deal than signing up did. More on building that email in my welcome email series guide.
What does an email popup discount cost you?
A popup discount isn't free, even when it "works." Here's what you're trading:
- Margin on orders you'd have gotten anyway. Some people who sign up were going to buy at full price. Now they don't.
- A price anchor. If the first thing a new visitor sees is 15% off, that can become what they think your product costs.
- Code leakage. A static code like WELCOME15 can end up on coupon sites. I cover single-use codes in my email discount strategy post.
- Discount-only signups. Some people sign up, use the code once and never come back. That's not always bad for a consumable brand, but it is if your offer is so big the first order loses money.
None of that means "don't discount." It means the size and type of the offer matter more than the yes-or-no question.
When does a no-discount popup make sense?
There are times I'd skip the percentage off and lead with something else:
- Demand is already there. If a product keeps selling out, people want the restock alert more than a code. When something sells out, the restock email is your biggest send of the month. A snack brand doing about $650K a month sent a restock email that made $48,771 from 30,498 people, its best campaign ever. A "get notified when it's back" form doesn't need a discount to earn the signup.
- Your margins can't take it. If a first-order discount turns the first order into a loss and your repeat rate doesn't make it back, use a non-price offer.
- You're testing a premium position. If you never discount anywhere else, opening with 15% off sends a mixed message.
- The shopper needs help choosing. For brands with a lot of options, a quiz result can be a better reason to sign up than money off. See product quiz email capture.
One warning. "No discount" can't mean "no reason to buy." Content warms people up, but somebody has to ask for the sale. A wellness brand I work with sent a month of all-educational campaigns with no offer, and campaign revenue went from $3,146 to $110, down 96.5%. If your popup promises a newsletter and your welcome email has no reason to buy, expect the same thing.
What can a popup offer instead of a percentage off?
Here's where I'd start if a percentage off doesn't fit:
- Free shipping on the first order. Easy to understand, and it doesn't reset what people think your product is worth.
- A dollar amount off. "$5 off your first order" reads differently from "10% off," and on a low-priced product it can cost you less. Test it.
- A sample or trial size. Good for products where the first taste or first use does the selling.
- A gift with the first order. A small add-on can feel more generous than the same cost taken off the price.
- A quiz result. "Find your match" plus a first-order offer at the results page.
- Early access. First dibs on launches, restocks or limited flavors. Works best for brands with real demand.
Whatever you offer, say it first. A Klaviyo strategist's forms guidance says to put the offer first in the copy, ahead of everything else.
How do you test discount vs no discount on a popup?
Don't decide this in a meeting. Run it on your own traffic. Here's how I'd set it up:
- Test in a normal stretch. Klaviyo's sign-up form guidance recommends running tests during normal periods, not during a sale or launch, so the result holds up.
- Change one thing. Offer type (percentage, dollar, free shipping, gift) or offer size. Not both at once.
- Match the welcome email to the offer. Each version of the popup needs a welcome email #1 that delivers what that version promised.
- Wait for enough signups. Klaviyo's guidance is at least a few hundred submits per variation before you call it.
- Judge by money, not signups. Compare submit rate, first-order rate and revenue per signup over the following weeks. A bigger offer almost always wins on signups. It doesn't always win on profit.
If you want benchmarks for the submit rate itself, I put the published numbers in what's a good signup form conversion rate.
Should customers see the same popup?
No. Someone who already buys from you shouldn't be offered a first-order discount. That's the full-price customer paying for your acquisition offer.
Every flow I install has separate paths for customers and for people who haven't bought yet. In my welcome series, someone who has already ordered gets the customer path, with a loyalty offer instead of a first-order one. Apply the same thinking to your forms: hide the first-order popup from known customers, or show them something else, like a restock alert or early access.
Where these numbers come from
The welcome email numbers are pooled from 4 consumable brands I work with: 2,897 campaigns and $17.7M in email revenue. It's a small sample, so read it as directional. Single-brand numbers are from individual client accounts.
FAQ
What discount should my email popup offer?
There's no single right number. Pick the smallest offer your margins can handle on a first order, then test it against a different type of offer, like free shipping or a gift. Klaviyo's sign-up form guidance suggests finding the smallest offer that still converts.
Does a popup discount attract bargain hunters?
Some, yes. That's why I'd judge the test on first-order rate and revenue per signup, not signups. If a bigger offer brings more signups but the same number of buyers, it's just costing you margin.
Is no discount on my popup ever better?
It can be, when demand is already high, when the product sells out, or when a first-order discount loses money. But you still need a reason to sign up and a reason to buy in welcome email #1.
Should I show the popup discount to existing customers?
No. Hide first-order offers from people who've already bought, or give them a different form, like a restock alert. Otherwise your best customers end up using a code meant for new ones.
How long should I run a popup test?
Until each version has at least a few hundred submits, per Klaviyo's guidance, and long enough to see first orders come through. Avoid running it over a big sale.
Founder of Bardown Digital, a Chicago-based Klaviyo email and retention agency for Shopify brands. He's worked with brands doing $500K to $100M a year, with $100M+ in email-attributed revenue across them.