- A simple version of customer lifetime value: average order value × orders per customer over a set period. Multiply by gross margin to see what a customer is worth in profit.
- For consumable brands, orders per customer is usually the biggest lever, and that's exactly where email does its work.
- A subscription wellness brand's "your order is coming up" reminder made $47,321 in one month, 74% of all its flow revenue.
- Ads are rented, your list is owned. When that same brand's new customers dropped from 1,657 to 223 in one month, email's share of revenue went from 41% to 53%.
What is customer lifetime value?
Customer lifetime value (LTV) is how much a customer spends with you over their whole time as a customer. Most brands measure it over a set window, like 12 months, because "lifetime" never really ends.
The simple formula: average order value × number of orders per customer. If you want the profit view, multiply by your gross margin.
You can get your real numbers from Shopify. Its Customer cohort analysis report groups customers by the month of their first purchase, so you can see how much each group spends over time.
Simple LTV math: why the second order matters most
Here's a made-up example to show how the levers work. Say your average order is $40 and your customers place 1.5 orders in their first 12 months. Assume a 60% gross margin.
| Scenario | Average order | Orders in 12 months | LTV (revenue) | LTV at 60% margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where you are | $40 | 1.5 | $60 | $36 |
| More orders | $40 | 2.0 | $80 | $48 |
| More orders, slightly bigger | $45 | 2.0 | $90 | $54 |
Now say it costs you $45 in ads to win a customer. At $36 in profit, every new customer loses you money in year one. At $54, every new customer makes you money. Same ads, same product. The difference is what happens after the first order.
All hypothetical, but this is why I care so much about repeat purchase. Getting half an extra order out of each customer did more in that example than any change to the first order could. My homepage puts it in one line: make the second order automatic.
How does email increase customer lifetime value?
Three ways. Each one maps to a set of emails.
1. More orders per customer
This is the big one for consumables. The customer already knows the product. If they liked it, they'll need more. Your job is to show up at the right moment.
- Reorder reminder. Across 4 consumable brands, replenishment flows earned about $2.23 per person, about 28x the best campaign. Only 2 of the 4 brands had one. A skincare brand's reorder reminder flow grew 496% in one month as new customers hit their reorder window.
- Winback. In the Flow System I install, winback waits 45 days after an order, then sends 5 emails between day 45 and day 60, with the offer at email 4. Only engaged openers enter, and anyone who orders again exits. Across the same 4 brands, winback email #3 earned about 2x email #1, $0.23 vs $0.11 per person.
- Back in stock. A snack brand doing about $650K a month made $48,771 from 30,498 people with one restock email, "We're back baby!", its best campaign ever.
If you want to measure this lever on its own, track your repeat purchase rate by cohort.
2. Bigger orders
Once someone has bought, they're the easiest person to introduce to a second product.
- Post-purchase. In the Flow System I install, the Post Purchase Thank You flow splits by order count. A first order gets 6 emails over 24 days, from welcome and brand story through how to use the product to a soft nudge to buy again. Second orders get 5 emails built around routine, third orders get 4 (including a review invitation that goes to every customer who reaches a third order, with nobody filtered by how happy they seem), and fourth-plus orders get 3 that recognize loyal customers and invite them to spread the word. Every branch ends with a nudge toward the next order, and that nudge carries a customer offer: a slightly upgraded version of the welcome offer, a buy-more or bundle offer, or a monthly subscription.
- New products for past customers. A haircare brand's new product launch email made $31,059 from 395 orders, and email went from 23% to 47% of total revenue that month. News is the best excuse to email someone who's already bought.
More on the first stretch after an order in my post purchase email flow guide.
3. Customers who stay longer
For subscription brands, this is where lifetime value is won or lost. Inside the automations I install, I also show subscription options, so a customer can save by committing to a monthly order. For the brand, that's predictable monthly revenue.
- Pre-charge reminders. The subscription wellness brand's reminder made $47,321 in one month, 74% of all its flow revenue. A heads-up before each charge heads off the surprise charge that makes people cancel.
- Skip and swap before cancel. Give people the option to skip or swap before you give them the option to cancel.
I go through these in subscription churn emails.
VIP lists. For the brands I work with, I set up a VIP list of customers who've spent past an amount the brand picks. Those are the people your lifetime value leans on most, so it's worth watching them as their own group.
What happened when a skincare brand rebuilt for lifetime value?
The skincare brand rebuilt its flows, including welcome, browse abandonment, post-purchase, a reorder reminder and winback.
| Measure | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Email revenue | $48,193 for all of 2025 | $203,777 in the first 7 months of 2026 |
| Flows as a share of email revenue | 60% | 83% |
| Store revenue | Six figures | Nearly seven figures |
The flow share is what I'd look at. At 83%, most of its email revenue now comes from automation that runs every day, catching customers at the moments that lead to the next order.
One honest note: email revenue in Klaviyo is attributed revenue, so not every dollar was caused by email. If you want to measure what email truly adds, run an email incrementality test.
What keeps lifetime value flat?
These are the patterns I see most when I take over an account.
- Customers and browsers get the same emails. My Flow System splits every core flow into separate paths for customers and people who haven't bought yet. A first-time buyer and a browser need different things.
- No reorder flow. In my 4-brand sample, the highest-earning flow type was missing at half the brands.
- Content with no ask. A wellness brand ran a month of all-educational sends with no offer, and campaign revenue went from $3,146 to $110. Content warms people up, but somebody has to ask for the sale.
- Blasting everyone. A fitness tech brand's engaged-segment send earned $0.19 per person. Its full-list blast earned $0.04.
- Discounts that only cut the price. Customers in my flows do get an offer, but it's built to grow the order: a slightly upgraded version of the welcome offer, a buy-more or bundle offer, or a monthly subscription. A flat discount on every reorder just gives margin away.
For the full system, start with my repeat purchase email strategy.
Where these numbers come from
The $2.23, 28x and winback figures come from 4 consumable brands I work with, 2,897 campaigns and $17.7M in email revenue. It's a small sample, so treat them as directional. The other figures each come from a single brand. The LTV table is made up to show the math.
FAQ
What's a good customer lifetime value?
It depends on your category, price and how often people reorder. The more useful test is LTV in profit against what you pay to win a customer. If one covers the other with room to spare, you're in good shape.
How long does it take email to raise LTV?
I work in 90-day blocks. A lot of brands notice a lift in email revenue in the first 30 days, and most see it within 90. LTV moves slower, because customers have to reach their reorder window first. I won't promise a number, and you should be wary of anyone who does.
Is a subscription the best way to raise lifetime value?
It can be, if the product fits. But one-time buyers with a well-timed reorder reminder can be just as valuable. A good setup supports both and keeps active subscribers out of the reorder flow.
Should I spend more on ads if my LTV goes up?
A higher LTV gives you more room to pay for a customer. Just make sure the higher number holds across a few cohorts before you raise budgets.
Do discounts raise lifetime value?
They can bring people back, but they cut into the margin side of the math. In my winback flow, the offer doesn't show up until email 4. For customers, the offers in my flows are built to grow the order (an upgraded offer, buy more, or subscribe) rather than just cut the price.
Founder of Bardown Digital, a Chicago-based Klaviyo email and retention agency for Shopify brands. He's worked with brands doing $500K to $100M a year, with $100M+ in email-attributed revenue across them.